2011-12 Oshkosh Winter Forecast Based On Lezak's Recurring Cycle Theory

I first heard about Lezak's Recurring Cycle in early October of 2010 from WISN12's Jeremy Nelson. My initial thoughts were that it was too good to be true. Then it happened, I was convinced after one in-depth analysis that it indeed existed. I will admit it didn't take long for me to buy in and afterwards I wondered why I hadn't heard about it before. A little over a year later and an extreme amount of hours dedicated to research and analysis, following the theory has grown into a passion. To this day I endorse the theory to my fullest capacity.

Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowing the likely weather and climate scenarios weeks and months ahead of time are boundless.

In 2011 the OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast has evolved into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and surface weather trends for the area. An exciting project only truly conceivable because of the LRC.

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Again, What Is The LRC?
The ’LRC’ which stands for Lezak’s Recurring Cycle is a weather pattern theory based on the following:

* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru the winter, spring, and into summer. The cycle length will vary each year.

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The Forecast
No reason to reiterate any more words of Jeremy Nelson of WISN12 or Gary Lezak of LRC Weather. With the cycle duration in clear sites, the cycling weather patterns will now do what they do. Please visit Jeremy's and Gary's winter forecast, linked below, as they dissect the long term long wave troughs and ridges that will be our weather until summer!

Weather Watch 12
LRC Weather

To create the 2011-12 Oshkosh winter forecast I am leaning on all of my rookie year experiences following the LRC. The main focus being the affect the atmospheric flow 18,000 feet above the earth has on the OSNW3 recorded surface data throughout the seasons and each cycle of the LRC. The predictions below are based on a 46-48 day cycle duration. Shrinking and expanding of the duration will take place as the seasons move along.

Disclaimer: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite my best attempts to understand the weather patterns my weather predictions might be incorrect.

Notable Weather Events
Cycle 1 (now thru Jan-2)
-Early Dec Cold
-Late Dec Snowstorm/Cold
-New Year Warm-up
Cycle 2 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
-Mid Jan Warm-up
-Late Jan/Early Feb Cold
-Mid Feb Snowstorm/Cold
-Mid Feb Warm-up
Cycle 3 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
-Early Mar Warm-up
-Late Mar/Early Apr Snowstorm/Cold
-Early Apr Warm-up (spring clean-up)
Cycle 4 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
-Early May Flakes (chilly start to golf leagues)

Events are open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired. This leads into the main focus of any winter forecast. Snowfall!

Days with Measurable Snow
C1 = 13 (now thru Jan-2)
C2 = 12 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 4 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 2 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 31 (including the Nov-9 snowfall)
*9 days above average (1981-2010)

Total Snow Accumulation
C1 = 16" (now thru Jan-2)
C2 = 17" (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 9" (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 1" (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 45" (includes 2.1 from early Nov-9)
*11 inches above average (1981-2010)

Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.

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On Going Analysis and LRC Based Products
I am determined and focused on providing a different way of seeing the cycle. I have plans that include time-lapse and graphical grids. Besides that, I will keep up to date the forecast trends, calendar, and activity in the AccuWeather LRC Forum. The AccuWeather LRC Forum is a great place to exchange ideas and to continue learning the theory. I recommend it. The 2011-12 Forecast Trends are located below and are permanently located on the lower right hand side of the OSNW3|LRC blog. The 2011-12 LRC Calendar can be found here and in the LRC Analysis Tools section on the upper right hand side of the OSNW3|LRC blog. The trends are based on a 48 day cycle duration. The trending duration may be retracted or extended later on in the year as the cycle breathes if required to keep continuity.

(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)


(Maximum Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

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Sponsor An Extremely Low Income Family for the Holidays

The 19th annual “Gifts From the Heart” holiday assistance program is in progress - this effort is a partnership of the Oshkosh Police Department, UW Oshkosh Head Start and the community. It provides gifts to low-income children who are participating in the UW Oshkosh Head Start program and their siblings. They are referred to “Gifts From the Heart” by Head Start staff. The families must fall within the Federal Poverty guidelines in order to be eligible for the Head Start program:

2011 HHS Poverty Guidelines

2 household members:  $14,710

3 household members:  $18,530
4 household members:  $22,350
5 household members:  $26,170
6 household members:  $29,990
7 household members:  $33,810
8 household members:  $37,630
For each additional person, add $3,820


The families are extremely grateful for the assistance that they receive. Here is some additional information about the program in case any of you might be interested in becoming involved this year:


The effort is anticipating providing holiday gifts to over 400 children and youth from more than 150 families this year. Head Start is a federal pre-school program that provides school readiness, family support and services to children with special needs. All families who enroll children in Head Start meet strict income eligibility guidelines. Head Start operates 8 learning centers and has served the Fox Valley region for more than 30 years. The children served by the Gifts from the Heart program are Oshkosh-area residents.
In October, Head Start parents will create wish lists for each child in their family. The Police Department then invites community members to call Santa’s Hotline to sponsor one or more children by purchasing the wish list items as holiday gifts. The Santa’s Hotline number will be published closer to the date it begins operation. Wish List items included clothing, shoes and boots, outerwear, bedding, personal hygiene items, toys, hobby items, electronic games, bicycles and sporting goods. Businesses, schools, organizations and individuals and families are invited to purchase the gifts for specific children. Other individuals may choose to donate undesignated items like board games, books, clothing and toys. Nearly 100 volunteers including the Police Auxiliary and many community and student groups are expected to help wrap and deliver the gifts of Saturday, December 10.
“Each person who calls to sponsor a child expresses great concern about purchasing just the right things and are careful to get as many details as possible about the needs of each child. It is clear that each gift is purchased with care,” reports Dorry Wilner, Community

Programs Coordinator for the Police Department. “But beyond the gifts and wrapping paper are a myriad of wonderful stories from families, co-workers and students who find creative ways to participate in this project. All of these stories demonstrate a meaningful sense of community that goes far beyond shopping.” The Police Department thanks the community for helping to make this event a success for the past 18 years and extends wishes to all for a wonderful holiday season.

For more information or to make a donation contact Dorry Wilner, Community Programs Coordinator, at 920 236-5714 or dwilner@ci.oshkosh.wi.us

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State of Oaklawn Elementary

Email received from Liz Lynch a parent from Oaklawn Elementary:

I'm emailing to ask you to please read the list below. After reading it ask yourselves if it would be okay if it was your child who went to that school. My son (and possibly next year, my daughter) attend Oaklawn Elementary. As with most schools in Oshkosh the teachers and families are amazing. Totally different than most schools in Oshkosh is that structurally half the school is falling apart, it is overcrowded and our children are not given the resources that other children in Oshkosh take for granted.

If you would be willing to vote to pass a referendum to rebuild/remodel Oaklawn on the current site please email our school board and let them know that. The majority of our parents want a school that fits our kids and fixes our inequities to be built right where Oaklawn is today. If you support this please tell our school board that. And, if you don't support that feel free to also share your opinions. In fact, please let me know why you don't support it so I can better understand those against it.

boardofeducation@oshkosh.k12.wi.us

Issues and Inequities at Oaklawn Elementary

• Classroom size in 1951 section is 20% smaller than most classrooms in district, but still houses the same amount of students as a regular size classroom.
• Hallway size in 1951 section is too small and dimly lit. Inadequate space for children and adults before and after school and between recess and lunch
• Capacity is currently at 92% using district numbers, not taking into consideration our smaller classrooms. We were told that all but one of our smaller classrooms would have 20 students or less, however, two of those classrooms have 23 students. We had to send one kindergarden class to Merrill last year because we had too many students and the same thing is due to happen next year.
• Square feet per student: the district average for an elementary school is 211. Oaklawn’s students have half of what other schools do. Our students have an average of 104 square feet per student. Carl Traeger has 373 square feet per student…that is over 3 times what our children have at Oaklawn.
• “Media Center” (really just 6 shelves of books) should be 1560 square feet (according to the WI DPI) is only 450 square feet, 4000 books too few, no reading space, no tables, in a shared space with computer lab
• Siding: visible holes and some of it is over 20 years old, new siding put on 11/1/11! This new siding was simply put on top of old, rotten siding that already had holes. This is an area that had leaks this year. New siding was simply nailed onto the old. Is there mold underneath the old? Has the leak been fixed?
• Roof: Has not been replaced in over 25 years. Over $25,000 has been spent since 2006 on patching the old roof. In the past it has leaked into classrooms, through windows and through light fixtures.
• Windows: the windows in the old are not functional and leak
• Computer lab: shares space with library causing difficulty with instruction when one class is using library and one class is using computer lab
• Art and Music share a classroom: better than using the gym and a cart, but still not on the level of other schools in the district
• Office space too small
• Storage: currently using gym space to store non-gym related items, books for classrooms are stored in closets in the hallway (not necessarily close to the room that uses them), there are no closets or cabinets in the classrooms in the old section
• 1 faculty stall for approximately 25 staff which is also the storage area for our paper
• Specialty services are provided in repurposed closets
• Entrance to school not safe. Anyone can walk in to the school without having to walk past the office
• Bathrooms in old section are deteriorating – some kids will not use them and walk to the other bathrooms
• Through ARRA funds and parent raised donations (almost $10,000) we purchased a lot of technology…it sits still not hooked up. We have had a Smartboard sitting in a box in a classroom for 8 months.

Thank you for taking the time to help make my children's education worthwhile!

Liz

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Counter-Intuitive

The AP story featured on the ONW website on the nasty WE Energies blunder that caused significant water and air pollution included the following opening paragraph:

"Decades-old coal ash hurled from a Wisconsin power plant into Lake Michigan during a landslide this week probably doesn't pose a significant environmental risk, although the extent of the damage is not immediately clear, experts said Wednesday."

If you left it up to this reporting, and coal-industry sponsored outfits, you'd believe that coal ash was good for you, and probably beneficial to add into your kool-aid. 

So what do others say about coal ash?  Here is one report from a physician's group titled "Coal Ash - the Toxic Threat to Our Health and Environment":

- While the toxic contents of coal ash may vary depending on where the coal is mined, coal ash commonly contains some of the world’s deadliest toxic metals: arsenic, lead, mercury, cadmium, chromium and selenium

- These and other toxicants in coal ash can cause cancer and neurological damage in humans. They can also harm and kill wildlife, especially fish and other water-dwelling species

- Coal ash is the second-largest industrial waste stream in the U.S., after mining wastes

Even if it is somewhere in the middle of the profit-focused coal supporters who want to sell this as an inconsequential slip and the selfish physicians who are looking to improve health, it is still absolutely obnoxious to enable and publish a story about pouring a bunch of nasty shit into our water ways and air and to then say that it probably doesn't harm anything, but we don't really know.

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19th Annual Gifts from the Heart

The Oshkosh Police Department is about to launch its 19th annual Gifts from the Heart holiday assistance project in partnership with UW Oshkosh Head Start. An ad will appear in the Sunday, November 6 Oshkosh Northwestern inviting the community to participate by “adopting” wish lists from children who participate in Head Start and their brothers and sisters. OPD volunteers will staff our holiday hotline (379-3537) starting on November 7 (9-11am M-F).


Businesses, individuals, student groups and classrooms, athletic teams, family and church groups have all participated in the past to make our previous projects successful. In 2010, with the help of the community, we provided holiday gifts to 425 children and youth (ages birth to 18 years of age). We do not provide any adult gifts. On December 10, volunteers from throughout the community will help us wrap the gifts and our Officers (who volunteer) and Auxiliary members will deliver the gifts. We have families who are registered with our program in all seven Districts. Gift delivery is a great opportunity for team policing activity and outreach. Our November “Beyond the Badge” TV show will also feature this project.

Check out our website for more information. If you know of a group or individual who would like to be a donor, have them contact me or call the hotline. A new community partner this year is Lara’s Tortilla Flats. They are hosting a collection drive for toys and children’s clothing on our behalf throughout November. For each item donated, you receive a free appetizer or dessert (one per check).

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Forum on the State of WI Government

“What Ever Happened to Good Government in Wisconsin?”

Monday, November 7, 2011

6:30 – 8:30 PM

Reeve Union Ballroom (Room 227C)

Event is Free…and so are the cookies!

Panelists: State Senator Jessica King (D-Oshkosh), State Representative Richard Spanbauer (R-Oshkosh), Jonathan Krause, Program/News Director – WOSH Radio and former Republican candidate for State Assembly, UW Oshkosh Professor Tony Palmeri, UW Oshkosh Professor James Simmons, and CC/WI Executive Director Jay Heck

Presented by Common Cause in Wisconsin and co-sponsored by the Political Science Student Association, American Democracy Project & College Democrats

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